Post by Livenortusinalor on Mar 26, 2021 16:23:01 GMT -8
Soccer Spirits REBORN ** Tiffon ** Thunder Legendary Draw + Statistics + Some Reflections™
(March 2021)
Tiffon Legendary Draw Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffEeG39CSXk
Draw Reflections (included below)
Quick Draw Video + Statistics (below)
Reflections
Took me a while to do this draw video because I was doing some experiments.
I tried to go on a normal draw streak without drawing a legend, before starting on the pickup draw for Tiffon.
(My goal was 69 normal draws without drawing a legend)
For the 1st 3 days after Tiffon release, I basically drew a legend dupe on the last 11 draw of the 3rd day which is perfectly normal because
So I had to restart again. So restarting for another 3 days, I was finally able to do 69 normal draws without drawing a legend before starting on the pickup draw in the video.
And the results were, I managed to draw a legend in the pickup draw on the 5th (1,500 crystals) and the 10th draw (3000 crystals).
As you may see from the picture in the spoiler below, boosted legend drop rate means that there is a ~70% chance of drawing Tiffon.
But I was extremely unlucky not to, twice in a row. Else I would have gotten Tiffon with either 1,500 or 3,000 crystals which is a very good amount of crystals used.
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But this is not the end.
After drawing Tiffon, I wanted to count the number of days before I draw a legend from normal draw again. Now is the 3rd day after I drawn Tiffon and I've gone 69 normal draws without drawing a legend.
This is rather abnormal because 138 normal draws x 1.5% legend drop rate = approximately ~207% chance of drawing a legend
Which leads me to some conclusions as to why I went on a 138 normal draw streak without drawing a legend which is rather abnormal:
Either way, we will find out in the next legendary draw. See you next time :)
*Afterall, this is still too small a sample size to come to any valid conclusions.
**Just a side note, still no light legendary release post reborn while all other elements have at least 1 legend release, while Thunder has 2.
(March 2021)
Tiffon Legendary Draw Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffEeG39CSXk
Draw Reflections (included below)
Quick Draw Video + Statistics (below)
Reflections
Took me a while to do this draw video because I was doing some experiments.
I tried to go on a normal draw streak without drawing a legend, before starting on the pickup draw for Tiffon.
(My goal was 69 normal draws without drawing a legend)
- Due to the ongoing free 11x draw daily event, we are able to get 23 free normal draws daily. (11 from event, 11 from dailies, 1 free draw daily)
- So, 69 normal draws will be ~3 days worth of normal draws.
For the 1st 3 days after Tiffon release, I basically drew a legend dupe on the last 11 draw of the 3rd day which is perfectly normal because
69 normal draws x 1.5% legend drop rate = approximately 103.5% chance of drawing a legend, with normal RNG luck.
So I had to restart again. So restarting for another 3 days, I was finally able to do 69 normal draws without drawing a legend before starting on the pickup draw in the video.
And the results were, I managed to draw a legend in the pickup draw on the 5th (1,500 crystals) and the 10th draw (3000 crystals).
As you may see from the picture in the spoiler below, boosted legend drop rate means that there is a ~70% chance of drawing Tiffon.
But I was extremely unlucky not to, twice in a row. Else I would have gotten Tiffon with either 1,500 or 3,000 crystals which is a very good amount of crystals used.
(30% chance of not drawing Tiffon ^ 2 times) = just 9% chance of that happening FML
But this is not the end.
After drawing Tiffon, I wanted to count the number of days before I draw a legend from normal draw again. Now is the 3rd day after I drawn Tiffon and I've gone 69 normal draws without drawing a legend.
Total normal draws without drawing a legend = 69 (before) + 69 (after) = 138
This is rather abnormal because 138 normal draws x 1.5% legend drop rate = approximately ~207% chance of drawing a legend
Which leads me to some conclusions as to why I went on a 138 normal draw streak without drawing a legend which is rather abnormal:
- There could be somewhat a casual link between the draws
My normal draw legend drop streak was resetted from drawing Tiffon at the end of the pickup draw ?
And the reason why I drew legends on the 5th and 10th pickup draw was because I went on a 69 draw streak without drawing a legend, before starting on the pickup draw ?
So we should go on a no legend normal draw streak before starting on a pickup draw which will help increase the chances of drawing a legend faster with lesser crystals used?
AND - If there is no link between the draws, possibly starting on a pickup draw resetted my normal draw streak of not drawing a legend ?
So that means you should start on a pickup draw only after you drew a legend from normal draw? so that it doesn't reset your normal draw legend streak?
AND - Finally, the last possibility is of course that I am very unlucky to go on a 138 normal draw streak without a legend draw (207% chance of drawing a legend)
with no other logical reasons behind, that are involved.
Either way, we will find out in the next legendary draw. See you next time :)
*Afterall, this is still too small a sample size to come to any valid conclusions.
**Just a side note, still no light legendary release post reborn while all other elements have at least 1 legend release, while Thunder has 2.
Stay healthy, Stay safe, Stay away from Coronavirus :)
fuck this game .-.